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20121129
20121207
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CNBC 1
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CNBC
Dec 2, 2012 7:30pm EST
the cliff in order for you to have a negative impact on the economy. even if you are coming down a fiscal slope with increase in some of the tax rates, for instance, expiring the payroll tax cuts to expire or minimize taxes to hit some people. high tax residents new york, california may find some of the deductibility of taxes is restricted. all of that is going to have a negative impact on consumption. we have seen the third quarter show that consumption increase is slower than expected. that's going to get accentuated as we go into the new year, which is why i think even if there is an agreement the impact is going to be quite negative. >> jim, you disagree. you call it a mole hill. what do you mean? >> i think it's sold as a cliff as if we're going to fall entirely off and have this massive fiscal tightening next year. what is more likely is a modest tax hike and spending cuts and most things extended and we live to fight for another day. i personally think we will have fiscal cliffs over and over the next several years. if you have a modest fiscal tightening next year, it's nothing new
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